Why Bitcoin Fell Below $77,000: Reasons for the Crypto Market Crash and Analysts' Forecasts

Bitcoin Falls Below $77,000 Amid Geopolitics and Liquidations

The cryptocurrency market faced a powerful wave of sell-offs. On Monday, May 18, 2026, the price of the flagship crypto asset Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the psychological mark of $77,000, hitting a local low of around $76,678. This drop erased all of May's gains and led to widespread panic among short-term investors.

The catalyst for the sharp decline was several macroeconomic factors and the worsening geopolitical situation, which forced major players to rapidly reduce risks.

Three Main Reasons for the BTC Price Drop

Bitcoin's fall to a two-week low didn't happen out of nowhere. Analysts identify three key drivers of the decline:

Geopolitical Shock: Donald Trump's latest tough statements regarding escalating tensions around Iran triggered a flight of capital from risky assets.

Commodity and Bond Market Pressure: The jump in Brent crude oil prices above $111 per barrel and rising US Treasury yields have heightened investor concerns. The market has begun to price in the risk that the US Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates high longer than expected.

Record ETF Outflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have long been the main fuel for growth, saw a net outflow of more than $1 billion this week, breaking a successful six-week streak of inflows.

Cascade of Forced Liquidations on Exchanges

The decline accelerated due to the liquidation of excess leverage on futures exchanges. In just 24 hours, traders' positions totaling more than $650 million were forcibly closed, with the lion's share of the losses ($584 million) coming from long (bullish) positions. The market was overloaded with margin buyers who were counting on a quick breakout of the $80,000 level.

What's Next: Technical Analysis and Support Levels

The current support zone, according to Rao Cash analysts, is currently formed in the range of $74,000 – $75,000. If buyers fail to hold these levels, there is a risk of a deeper pullback to $70,000. Therefore, before making any trading decisions, conduct your own analysis and exercise caution when entering trades. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $76,550 and is in the red on the chart, indicating further price declines on the daily chart.

Behavior of Large Players (Whales)

On-chain statistics are a positive signal. Despite the panic among retail investors, long-term holders (LTH) are in no hurry to get rid of coins. Their wallets currently hold approximately 15.26 million BTC, indicating a strong fundamental position in the asset among institutions, who are using the current downturn to accumulate long-term portfolios [15.26].

Editor's Opinion

What should investors do during the current market downturn?
1. Avoid margin trading: Amid high volatility and cascading liquidations, trading with leverage (especially above 3x-5x) carries critical risks to your deposit.

2. Monitor macro data: This week, key market triggers will include Nvidia's financial report (an indicator of risk appetite in the AI ​​sector), US producer price inflation (PPI) data, and news on the CLARITY Act in Washington.

3. Use a DCA (Drop Cost Averaging) Strategy: If you believe in a long-term Bitcoin cycle, the optimal strategy would be to gradually buy back the asset in parts at strong support levels ($75,000 and $74,000), rather than trying to “catch the absolute bottom” with one trade.