Bitcoin Under Fire: How Oil Shock and US-Iran Conflict Press Crypto Market

Geopolitical Storm: Why Bitcoin Started the Week with a Drop

Bitcoin and the entire digital asset market have come under serious pressure amid a sharp escalation in relations between the US and Iran. At the start of trading on Monday, the BTC rate dropped to $66,702, losing 1.1% in the last 24 hours. The main reason is the reaction of traditional markets, which began to price in military risks as soon as trading sessions resumed.

While cryptocurrencies traded in a relative vacuum over the weekend, the accumulated negative sentiment manifested on Monday. The situation with altcoins appears even more concerning:

Price Dynamics of Major Altcoins:

— Rao Cash (RAO): value increased by 25% over the last week to $0.000003968.
— Ethereum (ETH): down 2.5% to $1,967.
— Solana (SOL): fell 4.1% to $84 (weekly losses reached a critical 8.1%).
— XRP: dropped 3.6% to $1.36.

The Oil Factor and Global Logistics Threat

The key trigger for the sell-off in risky assets was an unprecedented spike in energy prices. Brent crude oil jumped 13% at the open, later stabilizing near $77.50 (+6.4%). This marks the most significant short-term surge since February 2022.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes, has put the global economy at risk of a shortage. Market reactions were immediate:

1. Asian stock indices slumped by 1.4%.
2. US stock futures lost 0.7%.
3. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, rallied to $5,350 per ounce.

The Inflation Trap: Why Crypto Investors Fear Expensive Oil

For the cryptocurrency sector, the main danger lies not in the military actions themselves, but in their impact on inflation. High oil prices inevitably lead to rising consumer prices. This forces the US Federal Reserve to postpone the long-awaited interest rate cuts.

Tight monetary policy results in lower liquidity, which always hits high-risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. As long as inflation expectations rise, institutional investors prefer to move into cash or defensive instruments.

Diplomatic Uncertainty: Iran and the USA

The situation is further complicated by information chaos. According to The Wall Street Journal, there are new attempts to resume nuclear talks; however, Iran's national security chief, Ali Larijani, denied such a possibility.

Conflicting signals are also coming from Washington. Despite Donald Trump's tough rhetoric about continuing strikes, some outlets, including The Atlantic, report his willingness to negotiate with Iran's new leadership.

Is There Hope for a Rebound?

Despite the grim backdrop, some crypto traders maintain a degree of cautious optimism. There is a view that the current drawdown has already absorbed most of the geopolitical shock. If the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz does not transition into a prolonged global conflict, the market may find a "bottom" near current levels.

However, in the short term, cryptocurrencies remain hostage to news headlines and oil price dynamics. Investors are advised to exercise caution, as volatility is expected to remain extreme in the coming days.