Analysts outline the risks of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 due to the Fed

Digital gold, as Bitcoin is often called, could be squeezed between $60,000 and $80,000 by the end of the year if the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decides not to cut its key interest rate in December. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at XWIN Research, who emphasize that the upcoming Fed meeting is one of the most uncertain in recent years.

Market Uncertainty

The recent US government shutdown resulted in the Fed failing to publish labor market reports, depriving the regulator of the complete data needed to decide on a possible interest rate change. Against this backdrop, expectations for a rate cut have weakened, and policymakers themselves are divided on their next steps.

Maintaining the current rate could lead to low liquidity in the markets and a decline in appetite for risky assets. During periods of tight monetary policy, investors tend to use leverage less actively, which can also negatively impact cryptocurrency prices.

Stablecoin Reserves and Pent-Up Demand

On the other hand, cryptocurrency exchanges have accumulated record stablecoin reserves, amounting to $72 billion. Analysts noted that a similar situation preceded all major rallies in the leading cryptocurrency in 2025, indicating pent-up demand. This means that a potential decline in prices is limited by the huge volume of stablecoins available for purchase.

However, further growth in Bitcoin is constrained by the macroeconomic situation, which prevents this capital from entering the market. Therefore, analysts at XWIN Research concluded that if current rates remain unchanged, Bitcoin could fluctuate between $60,000 and $80,000 by the end of the year.

What's up with Ethereum?

While Bitcoin faces uncertainty, Ethereum's price tested a key support level near $2,800. Historically, this level has served as a bottom in market cycles, which could signal a potential recovery. Analyst MAC_D46035 noted that $2,800 is an important on-chain level, which could indicate a possible rebound.

In conclusion

Thus, the current situation in the cryptocurrency market remains tense. Anticipation of the Fed's decision and accumulated stablecoin reserves create a challenging backdrop for further price movements. Investors should closely monitor news and economic indicators to make informed decisions in an uncertain environment.