How much profit was made from betting on Trump's victory Results from Polymarket

The leading cryptocurrency betting platform has reported a surge in pool volume from $94 million in January to $3.9 billion in October.



Currently, the U.S. presidential and congressional elections are the most sought-after betting topics on the Polymarket platform. Although preliminary voting results suggest Donald Trump might be leading, the forecasts on the platform remain open.

Who made what

As of 3:00 PM Moscow time on November 6, the betting volume for the Presidential Election Winner 2024 pool on Polymarket reached $3.65 billion. According to preliminary data, the ten largest accounts within this pool generated profits amounting to $75 million.

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Investors have wagered billions on the outcome of the U.S. elections. Here’s how it works.

The top user on the list is identified by the handle zxgngl. His activity log indicates that he consistently purchased “yes” tokens for Trump at an average price of $0.61 until the Republican was declared president by media. The estimated profit for zxgngl from this pool is around $11.4 million.

Polymarket currently features 39 open pools regarding the outcomes of the U.S. elections, each surpassing a million dollars in betting volume. Bets are placed on who will win in specific states, how many battleground states will support Trump, and what he might say in case of victory.

Bets on Polymarket effectively function as the acquisition of tokens that correspond to user predictions. By purchasing “yes” or “no” tokens, participants establish a market evaluation of the likelihood of an event occurring. For instance, if the “yes” token price is set at $0.65, participants appraise the event's occurrence probability at 65%.

Once the event concludes, bettors earn $1 per token for accurate predictions, or nothing at all if incorrect. They also have the option to sell tokens before the outcome is realized, allowing them to either secure profits or mitigate losses.

Polymarket, the largest cryptocurrency betting platform, has experienced substantial growth in betting volumes from $94 million in January to $3.9 billion in October, as reported by Dune. A significant majority of trading volume (83%) on the platform is related to the U.S. election theme.

At the end of October, it was revealed that over $45 million in bets favoring Trump originated from just four accounts (Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie), with one of the accounts also having a parallel bet on Harris winning. Investigations indicated that all these accounts are controlled by a single individual from France who stated that he has no political ambitions, engages in no manipulation, and is merely looking to profit.

According to Polymarket, this French bettor has earned at least $47 million from betting on the election's outcomes. The account Fredi9999 yielded $16.5 million in profit for its owner, Theo4 brought in $21.9 million, PrincessCaro netted approximately $6 million, while Michie earned nearly $3 million.

Not just politics

In 2020, trading volumes on Polymarket began to rise in anticipation of the U.S. presidential elections, peaking during the event itself. Post-elections, the volume saw a significant decrease.

Aside from political speculation, users of the cryptocurrency betting service are currently focused on predicting the rise or fall of cryptocurrency prices. However, the betting volumes in these pools are significantly lower than in political-related bets.

For instance, the largest current betting amount is in the prediction regarding Ethereum reaching its all-time high of $4,870 this year. Participants in the “Ethereum all time high wen?” pool assess the likelihood of this event at 90%, while 12% are skeptical of this forecast. The total betting volume in this pool stands at $5.5 million.

The probability of Bitcoin crossing the $77,500 mark in November is estimated at 84%. In contrast, the odds for Bitcoin achieving $90,000 or dropping back to $60,000 in November are evaluated much lower (27% and 15%, respectively).

Other popular betting topics on Polymarket include football events and Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Additionally, participants are frequently predicting changes to the key interest rate in the U.S., with a pool worth $177 million currently estimating a 96% chance that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates by 25 basis points in November.

Elon Musk has referred to Polymarket’s forecasts as more accurate than official data, citing that "real money" is at stake for participants. Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of the Ethereum ecosystem, believes that while Polymarket is a betting site from a trader's perspective, it serves more as an informational resource for the audience, creating an environment where “words come with financial consequences.”