What are the predictions for Bitcoin's price following the US elections

The price of Bitcoin has demonstrated a similar trend following U.S. presidential elections over the past 15 years. How will the prices react after this year's election?



Historical trends in Bitcoin's price movements indicate that the asset has consistently surged following U.S. presidential elections, regardless of who won. Since its inception in 2009, the leading cryptocurrency has endured four presidential terms and three different presidents. Analysts, referencing historical data, believe that Bitcoin is undervalued compared to the growth in previous cycles, predicting that its price could exceed $100,000 by the end of 2025 to align with past statistical performance.

Why isn't Bitcoin growing as it once did? An exploration of market cycles

On November 6, Bitcoin prices hit a new high at $75,120, surpassing the previous peak of $73,800 reached on March 14. According to Binance data at 12:30 PM (MSK), Bitcoin is trading at $73,700.

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Experts believe that growth cycles are not directly tied to the U.S. elections that traditionally occur in early November; rather, they are more influenced by the four-year halving cycles inherent to the leading cryptocurrency's network. The first halving took place in November 2012, followed by halving events in July 2016, May 2020, and scheduled for April 2024. All these events coincide with the year of U.S. presidential elections.

Halving is a predetermined event coded into Bitcoin that occurs approximately every four years. This mechanism aims to reduce the rate of inflation for new Bitcoin coins. Initially, the issuance rate was 50 BTC roughly every 10 minutes, but this figure has halved with each subsequent halving. As of early November 2024, Bitcoin's issuance stands at 3.125 BTC every 10 minutes, equating to around 450 BTC daily, or $33 million at the November 6 exchange rate. In percentage terms, the inflation rate amounts to about 0.85% annually.

Each time after a halving, Bitcoin’s price has reached new peaks, often setting previous records by wide margins. For instance, by the end of 2013, about a year after the halving, Bitcoin hit $1,200. The high for the subsequent market cycle at the end of 2017 reached $20,000, and in late 2021, Bitcoin soared to $69,000 before entering a corrective phase.

However, in 2024, Bitcoin's price reached a new record for the first time before the halving in April, hitting $73,800 in March. Some analysts suggest that this price behavior was influenced by demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in January, which purchase Bitcoin from the market to back their shares.

Other experts contend that the halving's impact may no longer significantly affect Bitcoin's price, claiming it's time for investors to move away from the four-year cycle concept as the cryptocurrency market matures.

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U.S. Elections

Nonetheless, statistical analyses have shown that Bitcoin has increased in value each time after U.S. presidential elections. In November 2012, Bitcoin's price was approximately $11. The peak price following the elections occurred in November 2013 when Bitcoin surged to around $1,100. In the first week of November 2016, Bitcoin traded at about $700, with its price peaking in December 2017 at around $18,000.

Following the November 2020 elections, Bitcoin soared more than fourfold within a year, reaching a peak in November 2021. Some experts see this pattern as coincidental, linking it not to halving or elections, but rather to the unprecedented capital injections by central banks globally in response to the Covid-19 pandemic that began in 2020.

However, the cycle post the 2024 halving has thus far yielded the lowest returns, showing only 16% growth since April 20. It remains unclear how Bitcoin will behave according to the post-election statistics. Nevertheless, analysts referencing Coindesk remark that if Bitcoin indeed follows a trajectory similar to past cycles, its price could exceed $103,000 by the end of 2025.