Bitcoin rose amid new problems in the U.S. banking sector. Given that we are talking about bitcoin, and given that the situation is what it is, it is necessary to take stock and understand how this situation may evolve, which will also have an impact, no matter how much Jerome Powell claims otherwise, on the future of US monetary policy.
Contrary to what you have been told for weeks, it does not look like the banking system is safe. And they will soon tell you that they really meant something else.
Bitcoin is mired in a banking crisis
In our opinion, the correlation is less than some Bitcoin-Twitter accounts are reporting, but it is there nonetheless. Not only is the poor state of the banking sector a great advertisement for bitcoin, but it is likely to trigger a return to looser monetary policy in the near future.
Looser monetary policy is a godsend for risky assets like bitcoin. In other words, whichever way you look at it, at the moment it looks bullish for bitcoin, which is essentially back above $29,000.
What's going on with U.S. banks?
No matter how sophisticated the explanations, everything is going according to plan - and even Jerome Powell has hinted through gnashing teeth that some of the consequences we are seeing were quite expected.
Since money market funds are now generating substantial profits - thanks to a sudden rise in rates - there is virtually no incentive to keep money in the bank. This problem arises whenever restrictive monetary policy is pursued, and it is not entirely new.
The other side of the balance sheet is that, on the one hand, some banks don't seem to have anticipated certain risks, and on the other hand, they may find themselves liquidating assets, even very safe ones, that are now worth much less in the secondary market.
The Treasury is running out of money
The U.S. Treasury has reminded Congress that it has about 30 days of liquidity left. In other words, without an increase in the debt ceiling, there will be no way to pay even current spending.
This situation raises the question of how the deposits, which are bailed out, will be covered if the situation deteriorates sharply. There is also the question of how much the U.S. national debt will increase if the ceiling is raised.