News of fantastic recoveries and restarts for FTX. But reality is different from fantasy. So what really happened?
The news that didn't happen: statements from one of the lawyers involved in the FTX bankruptcy process stirred up the cryptocurrency web last night. They also went viral on social media in that usual wireless phone game that distorts rumors until they become news.
FTX will be ready to go again. First this quarter or next. Then in 2024, then 7.3 billion will be found, and again all the problems will melt away like snow in the sun. Too bad none of this is true.
What (didn't) happen on FTX
Virtually none of what you were told happened. The news that circulated on Twitter and other social media was greatly exaggerated-or, rather, told with some convention and made possible (but highly unlikely) almost certain. The news, in fact, is twofold: FTX returned 7.3 million.
Through clever headline play it turns out that FTX would have returned, so out of nowhere and in a few hours, a good $7.3 billion, a very interesting figure but still a far cry from the total hole the exchange has created and must fill for its customers.
It is true that FTX will have $7.3 billion in its holdings at this point, but it is equally true that this is the result of the recovery and consolidation of the exchange's assets, which has been going on since last November.
The first problem is that the amounts do not seem to match what was reported just a few weeks ago. They are talking about $7.3 billion, which, according to Reuters, which was the first to report it, is about $800 million more than it was received in January. It was only in March that a completely different figure was reported, saying $11.6 billion in customer accounts, while only $2.7 billion was actually received. It's unclear whether the current $7.3 billion account included other assets owned by FTX that were not part of client accounts. The fact remains that the hole is still significant, if we take as a given the data reported to us directly by those who professionally follow the bankruptcy proceedings.
FTX may restart
There has been a lot of talk about this. And it all started with a simple suggestion from Andrew G. Ditderich, who at Sullivan & Cromwell follows the Chapter 11 process.
The lawyer in question really only said that there are as many options on the table as there are professionals involved in Chapter 11 -- and he also added, as few have reported, that it would still require third-party capital or the use of client funds to run such an operation.
Thus, the situation is very different from the one portrayed by several online newspapers, which even named a certain date -- next quarter -- as a possible relaunch, but then rushed to correct it.
Here, too, we are in the realm of pure speculation and far from certainty of a relaunch. A relaunch for which not only will we have to find capital, but also will probably meet resistance not only from creditors, but also from potential new customers.