Is the worst behind us? If you look at the cryptocurrency and bitcoin markets, it may seem like yes, but...
The lows reached shortly after the FTX case are still a long way off, and hardly anyone thinks it could be worse again. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency sector have performed better this 2023, better even than growth stocks and the high-risk world.
The macro picture has also changed - and we are in for a very challenging situation for both central banks and the so-called real economy world.
What should we expect from the market? What next steps should we consider? Now is a good time, since the first quarter of 2023 has just ended, to take stock of the situation.
Cryptocurrency is the best asset of 2023, but there's another part of the story
Cryptocurrency and bitcoin are the best asset of 2023 so far. The recovery has been significant compared to the price levels we saw before November, although this recovery tells a more complicated story.
FTX is partly to blame for the lows
It will take us a few more months to understand the true extent of what happened to FTX. We know what happened: what we don't know for sure yet is the extent of the chain effect that caused this collapse. Sudden liquidations, projects that found themselves without their most important sponsor in seconds, fear and withdrawal of capital.
The only certainty we have is that the lows reached by bitcoin and the rest of the industry were at least partly caused by FTX. Or rather, even the generally unfavorable market conditions were amplified by one of the biggest crashes in cryptocurrency history.
So much money is not coming back
There have been good recoveries - and they were also driven by spot buying and the return to the market of many small investors. Of course, we're talking about a comeback, because the risk is that because of the events, it will take some time for a broad (and cryptocurrency-unfriendly) audience to come back. There are those among the executives of major exchanges who talk about years of damage as far as implementation is concerned. That's likely to be the case, regardless of how resilient the industry proves to be.
Here and Now
It's become a meme, even a funny one. But yes, bitcoin has clearly demonstrated that it is here to stay, and that it can overcome even difficult problems like the FTX fiasco.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not to blame for what happened, that is true, but it is also true that SBF and FTX were some of the most representative faces of the latest bull run. And that's something to be reckoned with.
Does the tightening of regulators depend on FTX as well?
This is another question that will remain unresolved for some time. According to a number of commentators, the sudden desire of regulators to tighten also depends on the spectacular collapse of FTX.
The basic idea is this: regulators have already begun to act, but with far less punitive measures. What happened to FTX served as a signal for potentially tougher regulation.