The Federal Reserve prepares for its meeting: the crypto market is watching the rate decision

On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve will hold a key meeting to decide on the future course of monetary policy. The Fed is expected to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points (bps), with the probability of this move currently at 96.6%.

Forecasts and Expectations

Experts note that this meeting will be one of the most challenging this year due to political pressure and a lack of data. Following the 0.25% rate cut in October, investors are expecting another easing, but uncertainty is higher than usual this time.

Rate Cut Probability Data

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut is 87.6%. Previously, before the Fed officials' comments, markets had priced the chance of such a move at less than 30%. On the Polymarket platform, the probability of a 25 bps cut is listed as follows: The likelihood of a 50-basis-point cut is estimated at 96.6%, while the probability of a 50-basis-point cut is less than 1%, and the probability of holding the rate at the October level is 2.9%.

Possible Pause in Rate Cuts

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, noted that a pause in further easing may follow the December cut:

>>>> "The market may expect the Fed to signal a pause in the first quarter of 2026 after this cut, although I disagree." <<<<

Data Issues

One of the main challenges for members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the lack of recent statistical data. Data for October was not collected due to the federal government shutdown, which lasted from October 1 to November 12. This means the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release inflation and employment data for October, and November reports will not be released until after the meeting—on December 16 and 18, respectively.

In Conclusion

Therefore, FOMC members will make their decision without up-to-date information, adding an additional layer of uncertainty to the upcoming meeting. The crypto market and investors are closely monitoring developments, as the Fed's decision could have a significant impact on financial markets.