Bitcoin price is still in a sideways trend since the first half of March. This means it is already in its sixth week of consolidation, which is not yet the longest duration of a sideways trend in the entire recent bull market that began after the November 2022 FTX crash.
Bitcoin market analysis: Consolidation continues as Hong Kong ETF launch approaches
The last consolidations in the bitcoin market lasted seven or even nine weeks, and if you add up the events from April to September 2023, the consolidation would be 22 weeks. So while the current price pullback can be considered an average correction in the bitcoin market, for another week or two the bitcoin price could extend the consolidation.
The key levels for BTC appear to be $59,000 from below right now and around $73,000 from above. From this perspective, the market could develop a trend once one of these barriers is broken in late April-May or the first half of May.
In terms of bitcoin ETFs, inflows have likely slowed due to the slowing bitcoin price growth. In other words, price growth may have driven inflows rather than inflows driving price growth, although there was a positive feedback loop. It is currently not working in a consolidation environment. April 24 and 25 saw even larger outflows, including the traditional Grayscale fund's traditional outflow of nearly $340 million.
The ETF has averaged $165 million in inflows per day since its launch, bringing total bitcoin accumulation to $12 billion, and that's including the $17 billion in outflows from the Grayscale fund.
From an ETF perspective, an important event for the market could be the launch of funds in Hong Kong, which is expected to take place as early as April 30. The bitcoin and Ether ETFs listed in Hong Kong are expected to be the first in Asia to accept cryptocurrency products as a primary investment vehicle, and the products have also received formal approval from the Securities and Futures Commission, according to the Hong Kong regulator's website, Reuters reported.
China Asset Management, Harvest Fund Management and Bosera Asset Management, the latter in partnership with local cryptocurrency firm Hashkey, will be responsible for trading the ETFs. Perhaps this development will help BTC emerge from consolidation as early as May.