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hiTo date, three halvings have been identified: the first in November 2012, the second in July 2016 and the last in April 2020. All these halving events were accompanied by a strong increase in the value of Bitcoin. During the halving 2012, the BTC cost was about $12. During the year, the cost of BTC rose to more than $1,000.
The upcoming halving occurred when the cost of the BTC was about $650. In six months it rose to $19,000. After all, in 2020, the cost decreased to $9,000. And in the 11th month of 2021, the cost rose to a historic side chapel - $69,000.
Consequently, from the moment of decline of the value to the next maximum demand BTC increased 83 times, 29 times and 8 times. Of course, after Bitcoin became an asset class and market capitalization increased significantly, the pace of development after halving slowed down and could be further suspended.
Knowing that the peak of the BTC after halving will be in 2024, halving 2024 should provide a small growth of 2-3 times. Since several formal and intra-chain indicators indicate that the 2022 "bear market" has stopped and Bitcoin started well in 2023, it is likely that a smooth recovery will continue in 2023 and 2024.
Suppose that by the next halving, the BTC would reach $30,000 - $40,000, then one would expect a rally after halving.
Rao Cash Analytical Expertise: Event Context
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